They know it’s over. The UK government can’t stop Scottish independence.
They probably suspected it after Yes came within a whisker in 2014. The subsequent destruction of Labour in Scotland confirmed their fears.
Theresa May’s refusal to even pretend to be interested in any kind of compromise that will remove Indyref2 from the Brexit table is indicative of someone who just doesn’t give a damn anymore. May isn’t about to invest in a losing game. The Scots are just too much trouble.
It’s almost a reversal of 1707 when England bribed and threatened their way into bringing their northern neighbours into line. Freed from the itch they no longer had to scratch the English Empire blossomed.
Now though that Empire has gone and those irritating Scots, having hibernated for 300 years, are back. It took a huge effort to quell the 2014 ‘rebellion’. It was a temporary victory. London now watches as the Yes forces regroup. This time though there are no nobles to bribe.
What of the Tartan Brits of BrigaYoon? Scottish Unionism is the cinders of a once roaring Unionist fire. Fuelled by imperialism and ‘Great British Battles’ it’s crackle has gone and the glow fades. Any heat is now generated by intemperate language from Ruth Davidson and her schoolboy sidekicks, Adam Tomkins and Murdo Fraser. These are the actions of people who are afraid. Each obnoxious utterance is the equivalent of whistling in the cemetery at midnight.
Michael Fallon’s ludicrous “forget it” when asked about Indyref2 was fuelled not by a desire to prevent a second Scottish independence referendum, but by the realisation that London cannot prevent it. We’ve all experienced those moments when we’ve realised defeat is inevitable, but rather than accept with maturity and grace, our spite and resentment gets the better of us. We let rip in the full knowledge our angry words are impotent.
Independence is coming. I’ve never been more certain than after the Article 50 vote. David Mundell’s decision to back the government was indicative of another who confuses defiance with strength.
A confident Unionist would have been aware of the political capital to be made by symbolically standing up for Scotland. Mundell voting against Theresa May’s government wouldn’t have lost her the vote but it would have allowed him to argue that he had carried out his duty to be the voice of Scotland and honoured his contract with his constituents. I stood with you, he could have said.
He didn’t because he lacks confidence in Scottish Unionism to withstand the political fallout from having something forced onto the nation that not one Scottish MP backed. Mundell too has accepted the inevitable.
The only question left to be answered is when will the second referendum be held? I still believe late 2018 to be the optimum time. We won’t yet be out of the European Union and the uncertainty of Brexit, having dominated the UK media, will have embedded.
Don’t misunderstand, we still have to box clever. The British establishment, even if it knows defeat is all but inevitable, will still be throwing punches … most of them below the belt. They’ll lie and cheat right up to the bitter end. They still have their placemen in the Scottish media.
We know the timing of the second independence referendum will be critical but so too will be the type of campaign waged.
My guess is that the next Yes campaign will be short and will run on the message that time is of the essence. Present Scots with an opportunity to save themselves from Brexit. But that they have to act quick!
‘There isn’t much time’ Scottish voters will be told, ‘The UK is heading for the rocks … we have to man the indy lifeboat … now’. Faced with a sense of urgency and of course treated like absolute shite by the captain of the doomed ship … well, you know. Who wouldn’t vote Yes?
The only way Scotland doesn’t become independent is if Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t call Indyref2. When Ruth calls on Nicola to drop the threat of a second referendum, what she is really saying is “No, no … please don’t”.
Another organisation also believes independence is coming. If you’re interested, the Bookies are offering odds of 4/9 that Indyref2 will be before 2021. The odds on a Yes vote? Well that’s 2/5.
I wonder if Theresa May has had a few bob on Yes winning?
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