Westminster knows the Union is over

They know it’s over.  The UK government can’t stop Scottish independence.

They probably suspected it after Yes came within a whisker in 2014.  The subsequent destruction of Labour in Scotland confirmed their fears.

Theresa May’s refusal to even pretend to be interested in any kind of compromise that will remove Indyref2 from the Brexit table is indicative of someone who just doesn’t give a damn anymore.  May isn’t about to invest in a losing game.  The Scots are just too much trouble.

It’s almost a reversal of 1707 when England bribed and threatened their way into bringing their northern neighbours into line.  Freed from the itch they no longer had to scratch the English Empire blossomed.

Now though that Empire has gone and those irritating Scots, having hibernated for 300 years, are back.  It took a huge effort to quell the 2014 ‘rebellion’.  It was a temporary victory.  London now watches as the Yes forces regroup.  This time though there are no nobles to bribe.

What of the Tartan Brits of BrigaYoon?  Scottish Unionism is the cinders of a once roaring Unionist fire.  Fuelled by imperialism and ‘Great British Battles’ it’s crackle has gone and the glow fades.  Any heat is now generated by intemperate language from Ruth Davidson and her schoolboy sidekicks, Adam Tomkins and Murdo Fraser.  These are the actions of people who are afraid.  Each obnoxious utterance is the equivalent of whistling in the cemetery at midnight.

Michael Fallon’s ludicrous “forget it” when asked about Indyref2 was fuelled not by a desire to prevent a second Scottish independence referendum, but by the realisation that London cannot prevent it.  We’ve all experienced those moments when we’ve realised defeat is inevitable, but rather than accept with maturity and grace, our spite and resentment gets the better of us.  We let rip in the full knowledge our angry words are impotent.

Independence is coming.  I’ve never been more certain than after the Article 50 vote.  David Mundell’s decision to back the government was indicative of another who confuses defiance with strength.

A confident Unionist would have been aware of the political capital to be made by symbolically standing up for Scotland.  Mundell voting against Theresa May’s government wouldn’t have lost her the vote but it would have allowed him to argue that he had carried out his duty to be the voice of Scotland and honoured his contract with his constituents.  I stood with you, he could have said.

He didn’t because he lacks confidence in Scottish Unionism to withstand the political fallout from having something forced onto the nation that not one Scottish MP backed.  Mundell too has accepted the inevitable.

The only question left to be answered is when will the second referendum be held?  I still believe late 2018 to be the optimum time.  We won’t yet be out of the European Union and the uncertainty of Brexit, having dominated the UK media, will have embedded.

Don’t misunderstand, we still have to box clever.  The British establishment, even if it knows defeat is all but inevitable, will still be throwing punches … most of them below the belt.  They’ll lie and cheat right up to the bitter end.  They still have their placemen in the Scottish media.

We know the timing of the second independence referendum will be critical but so too will be the type of campaign waged.

My guess is that the next Yes campaign will be short and will run on the message that time is of the essence.  Present Scots with an opportunity to save themselves from Brexit.  But that they have to act quick!

‘There isn’t much time’ Scottish voters will be told, ‘The UK is heading for the rocks … we have to man the indy lifeboat … now’.  Faced with a sense of urgency and of course treated like absolute shite by the captain of the doomed ship … well, you know.  Who wouldn’t vote Yes?

The only way Scotland doesn’t become independent is if Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t call Indyref2.  When Ruth calls on Nicola to drop the threat of a second referendum, what she is really saying is “No, no … please don’t”.

Another organisation also believes independence is coming.  If you’re interested, the Bookies are offering odds of 4/9 that Indyref2 will be before 2021.  The odds on a Yes vote? Well that’s 2/5.

I wonder if Theresa May has had a few bob on Yes winning?

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16 thoughts on “Westminster knows the Union is over

  1. Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh

    I fear it is more likely that “Theresa May’s refusal to even pretend to be interested” results from a dark whisper in her ear that the “Scottish problem is under control”.

  2. David Howdle

    The problem with Mundell is that he was actually returned to Westminster (again) by a majority of the voters in his constituency. So in continuing to be a unionist he has arguably honoured the contract with his constituents, the majority who voted – much though I disagree with them on their decision!

    1. Kevin

      Yes, Mundell was returned to Westminster by a majority of his constituents, but not on a campaign of ‘leave the EU’. Those constituents didn’t vote Mundell to sign-away their rights for an ill-prepared, 1 x piece of paper Brexit; his constituents aren’t even *that* dopey.

      I agree with the author of this article, Scottish and British unionists have all but given up the ghost of this union and their actions and childish behaviour are manifest. Many of these Scottish unionists are clinging on to their jobs by the their well-gnawed fingernails, full-knowledge there’ll be little chance of that seat in the House of Lords, that lofty position on the board of a multi-national or at top tables with old pals. It’s over for them, they can’t even hide it anymore. History will remember them as ‘the ones who lost’.

      Contrast the impeccable and confident demeanour of the pro-Scottish MPs and MSPs. We’re lucky to be living in an era of such talented men and women; history will remember them for much more positive reasons.

      Scots, having come so close last time and having witnessed an increasingly fascist and willfully cruel – and dying – empire, will be doubly prepared for this Independence Referendum

      1. David Howdle

        I live near Dumfries. I can tell you that a significant number of Mundell’s constituents are staunchly unionist, come hell or high water! How on earth would anyone vote for him otherwise!

        1. Alasdair Macdonald

          I have an acquaintance who lives in the constituency and David Howdle’s comment is accurate regarding this acquaintance. We sat together at a dinner a few month’s back and had a generally pleasant time, but, it was obvious that on the topic of independence, we were talking past each other. To say it was a ‘dialogue of the deaf’ would be wrong, but, it was clear that on several foundational attitudes of our positions the gulf was wide and getting wider.

          While Mr Mundell got the largest number of votes and, under FPTP, he was elected, a majority of electors did not support him. And in the EU referendum in great numbers they voted to REMAIN, as Mr Mundell did, as every constituency in Scotland did. When he voted in favour of triggering Article 50, it can be argued plausibly that he was betraying the views of his electorate. There is a counterargument, which he has deployed in defence of his vote. Neither argument, of course, is wholly correct. It depends on how we see things in a changing situation.

          Undoubtedly, some of Mr Mundell’s voters will never vote for an independent Scotland and it would be impossible to change their opinions on that, But, within his voters there is a range of people, who support him with various degrees of strength. It is amongst these that change will occur.

  3. bringiton

    France is about to open a new Embassy in our capital city but the oldest one is still there masquerading under a false flag.
    The English embassy,aka the Scottish Office has been around for a very long time and it’s current ambassador,Mundell,is doing a first rate job in defending his country’s interests (England that is).
    It is the only explanation I can think of for his behaviour.

    1. Gordon Fleming

      “The English Ambassador, Mundell”. I love that! What a brilliant thing to call him. I got to knick and repeat that.

  4. john

    Good piece . I now have the feeling everything is bubbling beneath the surface , ready to burst . It will just take one more stupendous move from Westminster for Nicola Sturgeon to call a referendum .You can see it in our MP’S you can see it in our MSP’S you can see it in the ordinary man in the street , the frustration needs somewhere to go , indyref2 will be it . This time it won’t be lost .

  5. Gordon Fleming

    I believe they know it’s over and they are currently engaged in a “Slash and burn” campaign. They are closing and selling off every govt facility they can. Job centres, Tax offices, Military bases despite promises to the contrary in Indy 1 . Selling them off so the income goes to WM and we have to start from scratch. Plus they can say in Indy2 that we have no facilities to run such requirements. They need to be called out for this.

  6. Big Jock

    I honestly think that Theresa May and her cronies are arrogant enough to believe that they don’t have to worry about Scotland. They genuinely believe that they are right and we are wrong. They even believe they can stop a referendum.

    Does this sound like a government who will give the EU powers back to Holyrood! Anyone stupid enough to buy that one, needs checked in for treatment. They are going to continue as dictators until we take our country back ourselves. It’s been said before we don’t need to ask their permission. We just need to agree on independence as a nation and then declare it. By this I suggest either an independence election or our Mp’s withdrawing from WM if the referendum is blocked.

    If they don’t co-operate with us then we walk!

  7. Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh

    Picking up on my comment at the top of this thread…

    Regulars to this site need little persuasion that BBC Scotland is (to whatever extent) part of the British State’s anti-Scottish-independence strategy. Having recognized that much, it would seem a bit naive of us to imagine that broadcasting is the only infiltrated sector of Scottish society.

    Whether or not one is persuaded of Thierry Meyssan’s view of events in Kenya in 2007, it does present a disturbingly plausible template (though such violence is inconceivable in Scotland) –

    Please scroll down to the section headed “The destabilization of Kenya”:

    http://www.voltairenet.org/article162559.html

    If such misgivings seem completely unrealistic, perhaps it is time for us to take another glance at BBC Alba’s “Dìomhair” [“Confidential”] historical documentary series:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GQdkyggLrsc

  8. Sam

    Be a shame to see you go guys. However, a lot of talk about “England” on here. In actual fact, most of the world and a lot of Scottish nationalists have made people who live in England ashamed of being “English” which is a great shame as the people who live today were clearly not alive in 1707 or anything to do with the British Empire (which Scotland did very well out of by the way!) Most who live in “England” see them selves more locally identified, i.e Cornish, Londoner, Mancunion, Yorkshire etc. I only say this as the anti English sentiment falls on deaf ears when the intended listeners connect more locally and wouldn’t identify as English.

    Anyway good luck with your referendum but I will be slightly sad to see you go. Aswell some of the bad things we have done together (imperialism / slave trade) we have also done some great things.

    Sam – Yorkshireman

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