Theresa May Brexit Speech Affirms Scotland Must Hold Indyref2 in 2017

Any illusion that Theresa May’s Brexit strategy is not delusional and dangerous was utterly shattered by her speech last Tuesday. When she has to resort to blackmail, threatening to turn the UK into a corporate tax haven sweat shop if the she doesn’t get ‘the best deal for Britain’, and Boris Johnson comparing the French President to a German prison camp guard, the UK is indisputably no longer a union that Scotland should remain a part of, and is endangered if it remains within. Furthermore, Scotland needs to vote this year in order to clarify its constitutional status, to seamlessly maintain their place within the EU and become a new member state.

For the reasons I will enumerate, September 2017 would be a propitious time, just as Article 50 negotiations have begun in earnest, and which also should coincide with the Catalan independence referendum.

The Article 50 negotiations will be a train wreck. The negotiations will be over the divorce, pure and simple, and a very ugly one. There is intense acrimony in the EU towards the UK government engendered by their arrogant, delusional, and insulting attitude and discourse. It will be absolutely impossible to negotiate any long-term trade deal within the 2 year period, even assuming the UK government had a shred of goodwill. It will likely take a decade after.

Assuming Article 50 is invoked at the end of March, the actual negotiations will start in May, and there will only be a 1 year window to accomplish the rupture, so that it can be ratified before the EU elections in 2019. The divorce issues are momentous. How are assets and liabilities to be dealt with? What is the status of EU citizens living in the UK, and UK citizens living in the EU? What is the status of Ireland? THIS is the agenda that the EU will dictate, and the UK will be charged some £50 billion pounds for the experience.

Here is just one issue which illustrates how hideously complex the negotiations will be. Will the UK will still participate in the European Airspace Safety Agency (EASA)? Will airline safety regulations be applicable in the UK post Brexit? Will insurers be willing to insure planes which land at Heathrow if the safety rules are not applicable?

Scotland’s constitutional status must be resolved early in the negotiation process, so that the negotiations can proceed accordingly. It makes no sense to wait even until 2018, because the negotiations will be taking place on the basis that Scotland is in the UK, and will leave with the UK.

There is also the question of new trade deals the UK signs with other countries, once the UK is out of the EU. Brexiters are delighted that the incoming Trump administration has promised to quickly sign a trade deal with the UK. Given Scotland’s experience with Trump’s golf courses, why on earth would Scots want anything to do with a trade deal that involved Donald Trump? Any such deal would allow the American corporate vultures to pick the UK carcass clean.

Scotland is facing an existential threat from Brexit and Trump. If Scotland leaves the EU with the rest of the UK, it may never again have the capacity to take its destiny in its own hands. It will be forever shackled to an isolated and bitter little England, with workers rights, human rights, trade, and everything else at the mercy of perhaps decades of Tory rule.

Scotland cannot afford to stay in the UK as it sinks into Brexit oblivion. A referendum must be called for soon to have any chance of achieving its rightful constitutional status.

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9 thoughts on “Theresa May Brexit Speech Affirms Scotland Must Hold Indyref2 in 2017

  1. Dan Huil

    The more I see and hear about Westminster’s britnat attitude towards brexit and the EU – and it’s only just beginning – the more obvious it is we have to end this debilitating union with England. I believe more and more people in Scotland will accept the neccessity to end the union with England.

  2. Alan Macdonald

    This read like a project fear piece.

    EASA has 32 members which as you know is 4 more than the 28 in the EU.
    Its as crappy an argument as the ”Scotland will have to adopt the Euro” nonsense.

    Also, it would be idiotic to waste the opportunity of watching Catalonia negotiate her way of remaining in the EU, if its a smooth process then super, but if they make lots of mistakes then we learn from them. Its a win win.

    The way to guarantee the Indyref2 win is to bite yer lip and watch the utter shambles of Brexit unfold. Patience mate.

    1. Heidstaethefire

      I think you’re right. I’m beginning to worry a bit that we might be bounced into indyref2 too early by impatience of some on our own side. We’re already tied a bit too closely to Brit for comfort.

  3. Terry Entoure

    @alan

    I think Mark has a serious point about participation in schemes such as EASA. The 32 EASA members are the EU + EFTA states. Signing up to EASA means signing up to EU Regulations passed by the EU Parliament. The UK will soon have no representation in either the EU Parliament or the Council of Ministers because it has an irrational sense that the obligations of EU/EEA are placing unreasonable restrictions on UK political freedom. I honestly can’t see the UK participating in EASA or the EU pensions agency or any other European institution whose powers are granted by the EU Parliament. Moreover, there is the political cost to the Conservative Party of ongoing budget contributions. That would not please the Daily Express.

    If the UK chooses to walk away from EASA and everything else it will need to forge a formal cooperation with all institutions. There is plenty of precedent for this. After all, planes from all over the world do manage to land safely in the EU. The problem is the time that this will all take. The UK Government has signaled that 2 years is the only time available to sort all this out because it will not accept the obligations required for a transitional deal. There is a very real possibility that UK pig-headedness will halt trains in the Channel Tunnel, leave pension transfers in limbo, delay flights and, more worryingly, delay licenses for pharmaceuticals.

    The more I look at the UK Government’s handling of Brexit, the more it seems like a car crash. Rationality left the building about 9 months ago. Bloody heck, Boris Johnson is Foreign Secretary. Foreign Secretary! It is not a dream, he actually is the Foreign Secretary.

  4. Andy McKirdy

    Agree Alan, and Mark, I personally would love another vote tomorrow, but let’s face facts and I’m sure I’ll get a row from the more tolerant and conciliatory voices on here, half our population are either too thick, too bigoted or too selfish to see the light that quickly.
    As I’ve said on here before, so many people actually need punched on the face before you could get them to believe that a punch on the face is sore.
    Article 50 will be triggered, then as the shit hits the fan Nicola will call the indyref. A year for a process to change the minds of the intellectually challenged and a vote either autumn 2018 or spring 2019 but before a UK exit.
    I will trust Nicola to get this right even though I would man the barricades today.
    Patience for just a wee bit longer.

  5. bringiton

    The US of A,if we are to believe it’s new leader,is about to turn it’s back on being the leader of the free world,unless we pay for it.
    This means,specifically in Europe,that we are on our own faced with a potential threat from the East.
    European solidarity is now more important than at any time in a generation and England’s efforts to align themselves with isolationism on the other side of the pond will only encourage that threat.
    We must do all we can to discourage their stupidity.

  6. ScotsCanuck

    I agree with Alex Salmond on the timing …. Autumn ’18 ….. it gives YES enough time to mobilise and convince the “soft NO” IndyRef 1 voters of the apocalypse facing Scotland if we don’t get Independence within the EU.

    I also wish we could hold the Referendum tomorrow …. but this is a battle we cannot afford to lose ….. Scotland cannot afford to lose.
    We probably will never get another chance to regain our Sovereignty after this as we’ll be dispatched into the economic abyss with the rest of the UK.

    I’m convinced that the FM has got her game plan formulated (with some input from AS) and now all she needs is for Theresa May and her collection of Brexiteers to screw-up the Article 50 negotiations …… and being full o’ “John Bull” … they will.

    What would be really helpful to YES, from an EU standpoint, would be clear & unequivocal acceptance of Scotland within the European community.
    Now, I understand that is not possible at the moment as Article 50 hasn’t even been triggered but when it has and Westminster tries to play “hardball” with the EU, I’d appreciate some overt declarations of support for Scotland from prominent European leaders.
    I believe that would have a dramatic influence on the Scottish electorate …… possibly enough to propel the YES vote to an overwhelming 60%

  7. Mrs Hurtle

    2017 is probably too soon for the broadcast media to organise. Like it or not, we need them to raise awareness and excitement.

  8. Jockanese Wind Talker

    The Tories plan to leave the EU then abolish Devolved Government in Scotland rendering future iRefs impossible due to MP numbers in favour at Westminster.

    Make no mistake it will be iScotland or an ignored and impoverished region of Little England.

    We can’t afford to jump the gun this time and Andy Mckirby is right when he says “so many people actually need punched on the face before you could get them to believe that a punch on the face is sore”.

    Once people see Brexit is going to be sore for them financially, culturally, politically and ultimately personally then those who voted NO in Indy Ref 1 for selfish reasons rather than for the national good will change to YES, again for selfish reasons.

    But that doesn’t really matter in the long term as a YES Vote is a YES Vote and we only need 6% more of those this time round to win.

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