The first paragraph of this article (‘Hard Brexit’ to cost UK up to £66bn, warn treasury) illustrates nicely the degree to which political commentators in the British media are failing to adequately appreciate the reality of the #Brexit situation. Or, alternatively, the extent to which they are colluding with the British political elite in an effort to deceive the people of the UK.
The phrase “goes for a so-called hard Brexit” implies that the UK government has some kind of choice in the matter. It doesn’t! Aided and abetted by the media, Theresa May is frantically trying to create the illusion of control. She is desperate to look as if she is managing the process of taking the UK out of the EU. She wants to look as if she has a plan. She wants people to think she has a coherent strategy.
It’s all wind and pish!
Theresa May’s only strategy is to keep up a facade of competence while hoping against hope that something will turn up.
In an address to adoring Tories at their recent rally in Birmingham, May asserted that the UK would get a “bespoke” deal which allows privileged access to the single market while introducing measures targeting ‘foreigners’ that have been compared to Nazi Germany. That simply isn’t going to happen. She was lying.
EU leaders are in no mood to do the UK any favours. For the most part, they are are offended and repelled by the towering sense of entitlement that characterises the noxious brand of British nationalism espoused by the British political establishment. Far from gracing Theresa May with special favours, the EU is going to impose the most onerous terms possible. And the UK Government will have no option but to accept.
There’s not even any negotiation. At least, none that involves Theresa may and her British nationalist clique. All the talking is among the 27 remaining member states. And it’s all about protecting their own interests while making an example of the UK.
It is claimed that failure to pander to the British state’s sense of entitlement would be, to various degrees, economically damaging for the remaining members of the EU. But this ignores two crucial points. Firstly, there are circumstances in which political necessity trumps even economic imperatives. Brexit is an example. Any concessions to the UK which are perceived as unjustifiably advantageous will be pounced on by member states seeking to improve their own position. And by non-members, such as Norway, who will inevitably challenge any settlement which is even marginally better than their own deal. Which means they will challenge any settlement which is not punitive.
Why would the EU create such problems for itself?
The second point is that, whatever the impact on their economies of imposing harsh terms on the UK as it exits, the EU is well placed to cope. It will still be working cooperatively. It will be able to mitigate any adverse economic impact in the short term, and adjust gradually to the new reality in the longer term.
Not so the UK. It will be on its own. It will have to bear the full brunt of what the British Treasury is now estimating will be a £66bn economic bombshell. There will be no help from any quarter. There will be no cosy trade deals. The UK will be weak. It will be vulnerable. And the world will gleefully take advantage.
As ever, Scotland will have to suffer the consequences of the British state’s arrogant incompetence. We will be dragged down with them. Despite our democratic choice to remain part of the EU, we will be made to pay. And pay dearly.
I have always been dismissive of so-called economic arguments around the independence issue. I realise that you can’t answer a constitutional question with a calculator. And you certainly can’t answer it with a calculator that has been rigged by the British ruling elites. But there is one economic argument which is powerfully persuasive.
Scotland simply cannot afford to be part of the UK.Views: 3082
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