Speculation

Of course the media will lie. Of course they will misrepresent Nicola Sturgeon’s statement. Of course they will seek to deceive the people of Scotland. What else would we expect? It’s what the media does! But I take issue with the following,

“If, as expected, the First Minister indicates that the chaotic Brexit negotiations mean her initial timetable of autumn 2018 to spring 2019 has now been delayed, the media will be ready with their negative line.”

There is a huge and glaring fallacy in this. That is not the First Minister’s timetable. It is not even Theresa May’s timetable. It’s the EU’s timetable. It doesn’t matter a toss how “chaotic” the Brexit negotiations are. There can be no change to the timetable. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty stipulates a two-year negotiation period. There is no flexibility on this. Theresa May cannot unilaterally decide that she wants more time. And the likelihood of all 27 member nations of the EU agreeing to an extension is so remote as to be barely worth considering.

Nicola Sturgeon has two options. she can either insist that nothing has changed as a consequence of the recent UK general election. Which would be a perfectly reasonable position, because the reality is that nothing has changed. Or she can say that we already know all we need to know about how Brexit is going to impact Scotland and that we might as well get on with holding a new referendum. which would also be a perfectly reasonable position. Because we do know all we need to know.

The factor that may weigh most heavily with Nicola Sturgeon, apart from the obvious necessity of ensuring the new referendum is held before the Brexit process brings about irrevocable constitutional change, is the benefit of providing a stimulus to the independence campaign that would inevitably flow from announcing a date for the referendum.

In terms of a “timetable”, what Sturgeon must be cognisant of is the possibility – admittedly not great – that Theresa May might choose to end the negotiations early, rather than extend them as far as possible within the limits set down by Article 50. It is essential that the FM ensures there is sufficient time to deal with the practical aspects of organising the vote, as well as the likely obstacles that will be contrived by the British establishment – including refusal of a Section 30 Order.

From all of this, we can see that there is an an increasingly powerful case for announcing a date. Or, to put it another way, there are only rapidly diminishing arguments for delay.

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3 thoughts on “Speculation

  1. Big Jock

    What has just happened with the DUP bribe brings home the need for independence from this corrupt cess pit of a democracy.

    I agree that the way things are going the UK could be out without a deal by November. The mechanism must be in place to hold a snap referendum. This idea of a floating date must be killed. Name the date and then have a caveat that an earlier referendum may have to take place if the UK kills the negotiations early.

    I would choose autumn 2018 for a start. We will know the outline of Brexit entirely by then. But that doesn’t really matter. The referendum should be held due to Brexit happening at all, not the type of Brexit. Scotland voted for full membership of the EU not to change from what existed pre June 2016.

    The weakness for the SNP was in pining the referendum onto the subjective description and terms of Brexit. They need a simpler message that leaving the EU in any shape or form is against what 62% of us voted for.

  2. Alan

    we urgently require to go for self determination now, and be a free and proud Scottish Nation once again and kick this corrupt tyrannical Tory Government with their BREXIT into the long grass once and for all time.

  3. commonoldworkinchap

    I think talk of dates is premature. The DUP deal is about to unleash some very sinister
    forces, and sadly, with our history in Scotland we will be a target.

    The SNP , and Independence supporters will be fair game for an emboldened right wing
    NI agenda.

    Davidson and her merry band of OO boys have been laying the groundwork for some time
    now ( Ulsterisation of Scottish politics), so I would take any dates, promises, vows, with a pinch of salt.

    We are living in a time when there are no rules, no rhyme or reason. I sincerely hope I am
    wrong, but fear the worst. Their is method in their madness. To blame it on ineptitude
    misses the point.

    So after one more kick in thee teeth ( NI special treatment) we , again, have to wait until
    the negotiations are over.

    It will be too late by then. The Tories know this. They count on our sheeplike response, while
    breaking up what we have now. Dates, manifesto,s , and the like are all bullshit.

    Democracy doe,s not exist in the UK. And it is about to get a whole lot worse. UDI Now.

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