An embarrassment for the British government, certainly. But a gift for Nicola Sturgeon.
It is a measure of how detached and confused Mad Brexiteers are that they think the leaked Brexit analysis would be less embarrassing if it took account of Theresa May’s fantasy ‘bespoke deal’, in which the UK as an ex-member of the EU gets more advantageous arrangements than it enjoyed as a member and a better deal than the likes of Norway. Of course the analysis is going to look rosier if you get to include stuff that you’ve just dreamed up. Being bound by the rules of logic and mathematics can be such a drag!
Meanwhile, the timing of the leak could hardly have been more convenient for the Scottish Government. It is a very timely, and significant, increment in the weight of the argument for a new independence referendum later this year. It fits perfectly with Nicola Sturgeon’s strategy of allowing the British political elite to make that argument for her.
When the First Minister said on The Andrew Marr Show a couple of weeks ago that we would know the details of the Brexit ‘deal’ by October and that she would make her recommendation to the Scottish Parliament when it became clear what Brexit would entail for Scotland, most people heard the first part and failed to appreciate the import of the second part. They also failed to note that Sturgeon assiduously avoided ruling out a referendum announcement earlier in 2018. She did what she always does. What any astute politician does. she kept her options open.
As evidence of the detrimental impact of Brexit piles up it becomes easier to make the case that the Scottish Government must take the necessary steps to avert disaster. And, far from incidentally, to honour the democratic will of Scotland’s people. Some would argue that there is already evidence enough to warrant calling a new referendum. Some might say the leaked Brexit analysis makes the case for #Referendum2018 overwhelming. But Nicola Sturgeon has the advantage of time. She knows that the prospects for Brexit are not going to get any better. She knows also that there is growing awareness of, and mounting concern about, the constitutional threat to Scotland implicit in the way the British government is implementing the UK’s exit from the EU.
It’s all coming together. Nicola Sturgeon is in the happy position of being able to choose her moment. What she needs now is to know that she has the full backing of the entire Yes movement and everybody who values Scotland’s democracy.Views: 11855
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