On your marks!

An embarrassment for the British government, certainly. But a gift for Nicola Sturgeon.

It is a measure of how detached and confused Mad Brexiteers are that they think the leaked Brexit analysis would be less embarrassing if it took account of Theresa May’s fantasy ‘bespoke deal’, in which the UK as an ex-member of the EU gets more advantageous arrangements than it enjoyed as a member and a better deal than the likes of Norway. Of course the analysis is going to look rosier if you get to include stuff that you’ve just dreamed up. Being bound by the rules of logic and mathematics can be such a drag!

Meanwhile, the timing of the leak could hardly have been more convenient for the Scottish Government. It is a very timely, and significant, increment in the weight of the argument for a new independence referendum later this year. It fits perfectly with Nicola Sturgeon’s strategy of allowing the British political elite to make that argument for her.

When the First Minister said on The Andrew Marr Show a couple of weeks ago that we would know the details of the Brexit ‘deal’ by October and that she would make her recommendation to the Scottish Parliament when it became clear what Brexit would entail for Scotland, most people heard the first part and failed to appreciate the import of the second part. They also failed to note that Sturgeon assiduously avoided ruling out a referendum announcement earlier in 2018. She did what she always does. What any astute politician does. she kept her options open.

As evidence of the detrimental impact of Brexit piles up it becomes easier to make the case that the Scottish Government must take the necessary steps to avert disaster. And, far from incidentally, to honour the democratic will of Scotland’s people. Some would argue that there is already evidence enough to warrant calling a new referendum. Some might say the leaked Brexit analysis makes the case for #Referendum2018 overwhelming. But Nicola Sturgeon has the advantage of time. She knows that the prospects for Brexit are not going to get any better. She knows also that there is growing awareness of, and mounting concern about, the constitutional threat to Scotland implicit in the way the British government is implementing the UK’s exit from the EU.

It’s all coming together. Nicola Sturgeon is in the happy position of being able to choose her moment. What she needs now is to know that she has the full backing of the entire Yes movement and everybody who values Scotland’s democracy.

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8 thoughts on “On your marks!

  1. Liz Broadly

    Great analysis of how things are shaping up. Yes I think Snp plus the Greens will start movement/initiatives from October onwards towards another Indy/Ref 2 for Scotland. Giving Scotland democratic choices about where it wants to go.

  2. Alan Johnson

    I agree with this in principle – but the stubborn fact remains that at present, most polls on balance still suggest that only around 48% of our fellow Scots would vote for Indy. When we do hold IndyRef2, which for so many of us cannot come a moment too soon, we must be absolutely*certain* of winning it – and by a substantial and decisive margin at that. As this prospect looms, we cannot and must not underestimate the massive resistance that there will certainly be from the Unionist establishment – both south of the border and in Scotland itself, who will distort facts and oppose Scottish independence with every means at their disposal. And why? For a whole range of reasons – but none less than the Scottish Government’s justified determination to put an end to having Trident on our shores – given the lynch pin that this obscene and obsolete weapon is to maintaining the so-called “special relationship” with trigger-happy madman Trump and the USA. So a massive campaign to win hearts and minds and ensure an overwhelming “Yes” vote is essential, and needs to start now. Unfortunately time is not on our side!

    1. Peter A Bell Post author

      The kind of certainty you’re looking for doesn’t exist. Campaigning is about changing people’s hearts and minds. I don’t know what it’s called when you wait until you’ve arrived before setting off, but it’s not campaigning.

      1. Alan Johnson

        We would be much nearer to certainty, Peter, if a serious effort was being made – and I would call it an educational campaign or initiative – targeted at the substantial numbers of “floating voters” who could readily be persuaded to vote Yes if a compelling case was put to them. That such a case can be made is beyond doubt; and at past SNP conferences and SIC meetings it has been promised – but up until now, no effort has been made, or resources committed, to deliver it. Just what are we waiting for? It’s arguably because of this lack of action that much of the powerful momentum of the YES campaign, so very much in evidence in 2014, has been lost.

  3. Robert Graham

    As usual if it’s anything to do with the SNP especially if it’s serious work that informs people of the likely outcome of what essentially is a full english brexit ,

    The BBC in scotland will do its best to bury it , the findings of the SNP analisis almost exactly replicate the leaked report , so the bbc were obliged to report them ,

    Conveniently forgetting the previous cremation and burial ,

    I wouldn’t believe this lot to tell me the time or even the weather , this morning when they forecast snow i immediately looked out the window thats how distrusted this lot are ,

    One day they will give notice of a earthquake in central scotland and half the country won’t believe them now that is very disturbing for democracy and indeed safety thats how bad its become this is not a good state of affairs . Entirely created by themselves .

  4. Lochside

    Mass campaigning in the REF. of 2014 got our YES vote up to 45%. It may have shaded 50% if not for the outrageous and illegal live broadcast, on the eve of the vote, by Gordon Brown on the BBC which frightened many waverers from taking the final step to freedom.

    Since then 3 solid years of lies, more lies and omission or downright suppression of the facts by our bought and sold for English gold media. Thus, we are only 3% up three years later in YES voting intention.What does that tell you? That a substantial sector of our population are fooled by the fake news because there is no direct challenge via true facts.

    Time and time again..people are bamboozled into confusing reserved powers and soon to be no SG powers . GERS and the Barnet formula are not understood by many to be the massive fraud that has been perpetrated on Scotland and its economy for decades. We need a mass campaign, which can now only be led by the SNP. The attempted renaisance of the YES movement has been stillborn. We cannot wait for its disparate parts to reassemble in time. The SNP has the organisational ability to challenge at grassroots the disinformation. It should also be challenging at the top executive level, but so far has maintained its low level powderpuff tweeting defence.

    The YES campaign and the poll tax before it informed and galvanised the Scots. Only more of the same can prevent another pathetic defeat…forget the tweets…take to the streets.

  5. jk.scobie

    Yes agree, we need a full educational pamphlet sent around he country posted anywhere and everywhere for all to see, maybe , then the lies and deception will leak into peoples mind

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