May’s poisoned chalice

Alister Rutherford offers an excellent analysis as he dismisses demands for a UK general election following the coronation of Theresa May. I would pick up only one point, and that is the reference to the difficulties facing the UK Government government as they strive to “get their preferred position through parliament” in terms of Brexit. It’s actually rather worse than that. Because we know what their “preferred position” is, and we know that it’s not going to be on offer from the EU.

The UK Government’s “preferred position” may be concisely stated as being a negotiated settlement which affords the UK all the advantages of EU membership with few of the costs and none of the obligations that are considered an onerous burden or a hindrance to the Tories’ economically destructive and socially corrosive agenda. The want, demand and expect to be favoured with both the cake and the satisfaction of a cake well eaten.

Promises were made to the people of the UK. In some parts of the UK – the only parts that matter as far as the British political establishment is concerned – people voted to leave the EU on the basis of those promises. There was never any way that what was promised could or would be delivered.

(Thus far, much of this talk of empty promises will sound bitterly familiar to people in Scotland as they recall the despicable behaviour of the British establishment and its “Project Fear” propaganda campaign.)

May has been left with no more than a few low-value cards to play in negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Basically, she will have to take whatever they are inclined to offer. And the mood in Europe towards the UK is very far from generous.

May’s task is to sell the outcome of these negotiations to a parliament, including her own party, which either doesn’t want Brexit at all or, even where it does, will adamantly refuse to accept it on what will surely be regarded as the humiliating terms that May puts before them.

In politics, there is a term for the situation in which Theresa May finds herself. She’s f***ed!

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8 thoughts on “May’s poisoned chalice

  1. DerekM

    About sums it up all this talk about special deals and federalism for parts who want to remain is utter nonsense they will do what the EU wishes and that is proceed with article 50 the removal of the UK membership from the EU parliament and single market that is what they voted for.

    If after that the UK wishes to return to the single market they will have to negotiate a new trade agreement the two are not linked or can be done at the same time,one is a withdrawal from parliamentary status the other is a trade deal.

    We have a unique chance of taking that parliamentary status and our independence as well lets get it right this time yessers time to call in the big guns the EU lets have a EU run referendum and why not they have just as much right as the UK to run it or does one union out way the other.

    Maybe Alyn would know if that is possible, because well you just cant trust a tory never know when they might be sneaking about peeking at things they shouldnt and committing election fraud with creative accountancy and dare i mention ahem postal votes.

  2. Terry Entoure

    The 2 year time limit between triggering Article 50 and leaving the EU will certainly make life difficult for the new Prime Minister. She might need Westminster to give consent to any settlement. That will be hard with the level of remain support among MPs (I believe something like 80% of MPs are for remain). Getting the consent of even her own party might prove a challenge. Further, the EU will likely need to accept it too. The EU is not known for speed or spontaneity, even with qualitifed majority voting replacing veto rights. To be honest, having anything more than the absolute minimum that allows legal exit within 2 years will be a downright miracle. Meanwhile, the leave supporters are not going away and the next election will be getting closer and closer. The thirst that UK business has for EU workers is not going away either. I can imagine that levels of inward migration will increase, if anything. The only thing that would stop that would be a full recession. Pressure on all sides. What a mess.

    I can imagine that the next PM or the one after that might be able to make headway towards satisfying leave campaigners. Even there, look at the deadlock Switzerland has with the EU over a single treaty: 2.5 years and no agreement in sight. Anyway, who knows what priorities will exist then. If a week is a long time in politics…

    1. RabMacPhoto

      Is there any way that EU could force invoking of Article 50? Because the high heid yins don’t seem in any mood to drag things out.

      1. Peter A Bell Post author

        There is no formal way to force the UK Government to invoke Article 50. But we can be sure that there will be a huge amount of political pressure, both from the EU and from within the British political establishment.

        There is also Article 7 of the Lisbon Treaty. Although it may be unlikely that the EU would go down the path of imposing sanctions on the UK, it is an ever-present threat.

        http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-1-common-provisions/7-article-7.html

        1. Terry Entoure

          If it all gets too hard for the Brexit department, this actually presents a quick way out for the UK. When their peanut brains are exhausted from finally trying to understand the ways of the EU, they just need to do something completely crazy, wait to get kicked out, and let the EU Bureaucrats clear up the mess. Then when the economy tanks they can complain endlessly that it is all the fault of the EU bureaucrats and get The Sun to re-run those “Up, yours Delors” headlines with whoever they decide to blame.

          This is unlikely to happen, of course. Personally, I’d rather trust this to EU bureaucrats, who have spent their careers planning and thinking about detail, than David Davis, who actually thinks he can negotiate separate trade deals with the French, the Polish and the Germans.

  3. David MacGille-Mhuire

    Ah, the Anglo-Saxon “Jerusalem” thingamajig cometh to pass in a fudge that the Brit uber upper classes hope for.

    Pray for.

    Hope in desperandum mutatis mutandum, buttock nipping and sphincter-clenching, for now that it seems the penny may be dropping even unto and even in to the Zeig Heil BREXITEERS’s zealots’s brain-pans.

    A Whoa Moment

    Ayne oopsa-daisy epiphany too late.

    Adieu rump Angleterre from Ecosse. Bon voyage!

  4. David MacGille-Mhuire

    PS It would seem that the EU shares the “Jock” sentiment of GTF asap, les Roast Beefs: You are a divisive shower of neo-Con/-Lib, decaying, parasitic, imperialist thugs thankfully to be finally gotten shot of forever after.

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