It’s over for Ruth’s Tories … but what does May’s deal mean for independence?

Theresa May has signed up to an agreement that guarantees access to UK waters for EU fishing vessels.  That’s the unpalatable truth for Ruth Davidson’s thirteen strong contingent of MPs.

The agreement itself makes it clear that existing rules on fishing and quotas will endure beyond the transition period.

Some woolly language on the UK being an independent sovereign state is merely there to allow May to save face.  The truth that nothing will change in terms of access to UK waters was laid bare when Emmanuel Macron tied fishing to a trade deal hours after the EU27 agreed its stance.

Even hapless David Mundell has been forced to concede that the latest Scottish Tory ‘red line’ has been ignored.

The beleaguered Scottish Secretary and the other twelve Scottish Tory MPs had demanded fishing be uncoupled from any agreement.

Only two weeks ago they sent a letter to Theresa May which stated: “We could not support an agreement with the EU that would prevent the UK from independently negotiating access and quota shares…. Access and quota shares cannot be included in the Future Economic Partnership.”

It made it as the top story on Reporting Scotland.

The agreement May has signed up to compels the UK to accept access and quotas will form part of any deal after the transition period.  Ruth’s Tories have been ignored, just as they were over Northern Ireland and as they were back in March when they first drew a fishing red line.

Ruth Davidson’s contingent of MPs have been hooked by their own bait.  Most won their seats courtesy of an election campaign dominated by fishing.  They were going to protect fishermen from the CFP.  Theresa May has left them wriggling and gasping open mouthed.

What options do they have?

They can’t back the SNP’s proposal of staying in the Single Market and Customs Union.  To do that is to remain in the CFP.  They can’t back calls for another People’s Vote.  To do that is to undermine their ‘No Indyref2’ stance.

The only thing that can save Ruth’s Scottish Tories is a ‘No Deal’ Brexit. Only this guarantees the UK regains full control over fishing access.

But Ruth Davidson has already stated she’ll oppose a No Deal.  Mundell has described No Deal as “catastrophic”.  No Deal makes an indyref2 Yes vote more likely than a No vote.

The only way to obtain a ‘No Deal’ is to oppose Theresa May’s Withdrawal Bill.  There’s no way the Scottish Conservatives will oppose May.  They simply haven’t the balls.

This means the Scottish Conservatives are dead in the water.  The fishing communities they duped in 2017 in order to win SNP seats, will ditch them.  Ruth Davidson’s honeymoon is well and truly over.  Don’t be surprised if the new mum resigns.

But what about independence?

If, as expected, the House of Commons rejects May’s Withdrawal Bill … then what?  May has threatened a No Deal should such a scenario come to pass.

That would bring on a second independence referendum.  Even Ruth Davidson couldn’t resist demands for a second ballot in the event of a No Deal Brexit.  A short-sharp campaign would ensure voters stepped into the voting booth with the fires of a No Deal raging.  A Yes result is likely.

The alternative is a rerun of the EUReferendum.  If that came to pass then all bets are off on a second Indyref during the lifetime of this Scottish parliament … unless the English re-affirmed their intention to leave.

As things stand the Scottish Tories can’t be saved … but the Union just might.  Ironically, Nicola Sturgeon’s backing for a second EUReferendum might be the very thing that prevents Scotland holding another Indyref.

How ironic would that be?

 

Article submitted by an Indyref2 reader.

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20 thoughts on “It’s over for Ruth’s Tories … but what does May’s deal mean for independence?

    1. Tony Little

      Well, I don’t.

      We are in this position, to some extent, because the SNP were actually trying to be proper parliamentarians in a representative democracy, whereas the reality is that Westminster is just a glorified gentleman’s club in a de facto elected dictatorship.

      Scotland will be held on to with the dying gasp of this disunited kingdom because Scotland’s assets and resources are helping keep London afloat. I have come to the unhappy conclusion that unless the SNP start to fight fire with fire, and drop their constant desire to be the “nice guys”, we will not make progress.

      Independence is in a hard place. Between the Rock of “Significant Change” and the hard place of “No Brexit”. When to call IR2? I wish I knew, but I do think it must be before 29 March 2019 or we are sunk.

      1. Luigi

        Too much middle class niceness from the Scottish government. Play by the rules, don’t upset the media etc. Well the media are already raging. It’s time to take the gloves off and get stuck into them. Heck, they hate the SNP and will bad-mouth them anyway. Get angry and upset them deliberately – at least you can set the narrative, rather than all this rebuttal effort which is effectively closing the stable door after the scare story has bolted.

  1. bringiton

    The unpalatable fact for Scots who voted for unionist MPs is that within England’s union,Scotland has no say.
    This is especially true for those of a Tory persuasion.
    Scottish Tory MPs cannot even represent their constituents’ interests,let alone Scotland’s.
    Shame on them.

    1. Lorna Campbell

      I don’t believe that it is unpalatable at all, bringiton. I believe it is just how they like it. I also believe that the NOs of 2014 are equally sanguine about the terrible damage they have done to Scotland. This is what they term ‘normalcy’. Because we who are of independent mind can see and detest the whole British (English) Nationalist mess that has been brought to us, those who voted for us to remain in the UK (and they would vote to do so again, make no mistake) are delighted that we are being forced to endure all manner of abuse.

      It proves, they think, that Scotland cannot govern itself and that they have been right all along. Much better as a colony. To my mind, this is the greatest fallacy doing the rounds: that NOs can be ‘turned’ and that many of them regret (will regret) Brexit and the One Nation Tory State. NO, folks, they revel in our misfortune – the misfortune that they created in 2014 with their NO vote. They believe that Scottish independence would be far worse (for them, mind) than Brexit. That is the most stupid, short-sighted, deluded, dangerous and, frankly, me-ist agenda ever.

      It has been echoed in Quebec, in Catalunya and in New Caledonia just recently, as well as in Scotland in 2014. Yet, still we cry out for these utterly selfish groups to be allowed to shaft us yet again in a second indyref. Fine, go ahead. You’ll get another NO, and that’s only if they ‘allow’ us another indyref in the first place – which they won’t. So, basically, we beat the drum on behalf of these utterly undemocratic, unconscionable b******s – must keep it all democratic, don’t ya know – in order to help them shaft us again. You really couldn’t make it up. Except we do – every day.

      This is all going to end badly, if we don’t change tack very soon, with a divided Scotland like NI – and here’s the best bit: we’ll have done it to ourselves because we have allowed the naysayers to hi-jack the agenda on every single occasion and on every single matter. They have brought us to the edge of the abyss with their self-interested NO vote; they have brought us Brexit because so many of them voted for that, too; and they have brought us the Tory revival in Scotland. Are we dumb or are we dumb? It is way past the time for letting these anti-Scots and racists know exactly what they have done. Persuade them? Aye, right!

        1. Lorna Campbell

          Jon, I have said many times that we need to be proactive, not reactive. I have explained many times that a pre-independence referendum is not necessary. Not only is it not necessary, it is foolhardy, given the numbers. I would back a second indyref to the hilt if I thought for one moment that a) we’d get it; b) we’d win it. I don’t know about anyone else, but another NO vote would leave me so bereft, I’d crawl away and slowly die, all the stuffing knocked out of me.

          No international law makes it imperative that we must have a second indyref: it is equally democratic and legitimate to appeal to the UN for recognition and start to dissolve the Union ourselves, making our case very plain. We withdraw from any dialogue with Westminster until they agree to dissolve the Union by rescinding, with us, the Treaty. The UN does not approve of minority groups laying down the law on what the indigenous population can and cannot do, and its patience is being tested daily day by bully boys of the former Empires.

          The world’s eyes are on Westminster right now, and it is now that we should strike. We have given them every opportunity to consult with us, to treat with us, to understand our fears and desires and it has all been a waste of time and effort because they are not listening. They are not not listening because they have other fish to fry; they are not listening because they choose not to listen. The oil field they told us did not exist and even if it did, it would be dry about tomorrow (remember Sir Ian Wood and his predictions; yes, the same chap who owns a fifth of Scotland’s pelagic fishing industry, that Sir Ian Wood).

          What was done to Scotland with the burial of the McCrone Report and connivance of the tame Scots, was an international crime against a whole people. They stole our children’s and grandchildren’s heritage. Either we stand back and let them do the same again or we circumvent that NO vote and take our independence. There is another way: to restrict the voting qualification to those of Scottish parentage + residency. I’m less keen on this way as, whilst not being in any way illegal (Cameron used this method in the EU ref and he was within the law), it seems harsh and makes me uncomfortable. However, if I thought for one minute that the same naysayers who thwarted our independence in 2014 were quite prepared, unashamedly, to do the same again, if a second referendum was granted or called by us, I’d give it serious thought.

          1. Jim

            You are wrong Lorna, there are sufficient soft no folk out there to swing the vote to yes. 2014 no voters are dying off quicker than yes and up to a quarter of them could be won over in due course. Throw in the reversal in europeans voting inclinations and its game on. The key to securing a Yes inclination from both softYes and softNo is to educate the man in the street with respect to the mindset which nervously proclaims: “There would be a deficit, so we would be f****d”. Do that, en-masse, and the ‘no thanks we’re scottish and we think we’re not good enough’ brigade will be shaking in their boots.

      1. John

        Hate to say it but I think you are right Lorna , we will never change some people’s minds so lets concentrate on the one’s we can change , and there are people that just need convincing that Scotland as a nation can make it alone .
        We definitely need to up our message , we need to shout it louder , but what we really need are the tools , eg. media coverage , broadcast coverage , and a BBC that doesn’t lie through its teeth ! .

  2. Jockanese Wind Talker

    Ruth Davidson aka Colonel Yadaftie has ZERO MPs.

    She is Branch Leader of the cohort of MSPs of the Conservative and Unionist Party (North British Branch).

    The MPs are T Mays.

    You are giving oxygen to the lie that the “Scottish Tories” are a separate party to the abhorrent Right Wing Neo-Fascists currently in power at Westminster.

    They are not.

    There are NO Scottish Tories.

    only

    Tories from Scotland.

  3. Independent Woman

    I take exception to your statement that the Tory MPs have no balls. They have. They have 13 balls but they are their heids. Ba’ heids all.

    I can only endorse the statements from some commentators about the SNP playing Westminster games. Stop it. Get angry and start breaking the old boys’ club rules. Being polite and cooperative has got SNP MPs insulted and ignored.

    It is time the mythical rebuttal unit got real and comes out screaming every time somebody lies. eg What are they doing about Glenn Campbell’s remarks on Conservatives MPs celebrating the fisheries ‘victory’? A wide open goal and nobody from the SNP commenting.

    I’m a long time SNP member but I am so despite the SNP not because of their recent actions.

  4. Clydebuilt

    Cyril Mitchell at 6.35am

    Well they have already put a halt to elections in N.I. Not too difficult to envisage the Tories doing likewise to Scotland. Then there’s the Henry 5 or 7 th laws.

    So all The Tories have to do is refuse to grant a second Independence Referendum, halt elections in Scotland, then the democratic process will have ended.

    Nicola has said if a second Independence a Referendum is refused, a majority of MP’s elected on a manifesto proposing Independence would be another path.
    Seems to me that the Tories can soon put a stop to that!

    1. Lorna Campbell

      They can put a stop to anything we do that is in any way in the hands of Westminster or the electoral system. They cannot prevent us from appealing to the UN and to the international community. However, I can see no evidence that that has even been considered. Anything is possible, but it is not possible within the British political system. So, withdraw from the British political system. That is the only way. It is the way almost every former colony gained its independence. There is no easy way. In any case, having seen what Westminster is relying on – mainly our devolved powers – there is no way whatsoever that Westminster will grant a second indyref, and even if they did, for the sake of appearance, they would do all in their power to destroy us this time. Too much of what we have, they need.

  5. Lochside

    All along the SNP have played the game at the wrong constitutional level. Holyrood is and always was a hellish creation of Westminster..born to be a diversion and a trap for the SNP to fall into.

    The real arena for our struggle should always have been Westminster. If the SNP had gone into the 2015 strongly, based on 100,000 new members and the wave of anger in Scotland with a clear Independence agenda, we would have had the clear constitutional authority to demand the dissolution of the Union there and then.

    The 2014 Referendum had no basis for surrender of our Sovereignty. It was breached time and time again during purdah. And the postal vote was invalidated by Ruth Davidson’s clear admission of ‘NO’ voting numbers pre the result. Add in the impossible postal vote numbers discovered in Argyll and Bute. We should never have allowed it to define and distort the basis of what this so called ‘Democracy’ is based on : Representative Democracy i.e numbers of MPs NOT PLEBISCITES.

    We should have, and should continue to, call the Westminster sham’s bluff and vote a majority of Indy Reps into ‘Parliament’ and dissolve it at the first opportunity.

  6. Big Jock

    The best thing for independence would be WM backing Mays deal. That would mean Indy Ref 2 right away. A no deal would mean months more of wait and see.

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